It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, now sit just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough question to answer. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
